Mark Levine’s 2012 Election Prediction – Obama 332 — Romney 206
Obama will win 332 Electoral Votes to Romney’s 206. Florida will be very very very close.
Democrats pick up a seat (including independent Angus King in Maine) in the Senate to increase their majority to 54 seats.
Democrats win 5-10 seats in the House.
Obama wins 26 States & DC:
FL less than 1 point — this state is the I’m most likely to be wrong about. But if it does go to Romney, it will be by less than 1 point. Still I predict Obama ekes out an EXTREMELY tight victory.
VA 0-2 points
CO 0-2 points
OH 2-4 points
IA 2-5 points
NH 2-5 points
WI 3-6 points
NV 3-6 points
MI more than 5 points (but not much more)
PA more than 5 points (but not much more)
MN more than 5 points
NM more than 5 points
DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME (including the Second Congressional District), IL, CA, OR, WA, HI
Romney wins the other 24 states, all by margins of more than 5 points, except NC where he ekes out a narrow victory of 1-3 points.